Ethiopia

Next 7 daysModerate32%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 2007275,698
Trend: −9%/ 10significant · on raw data: +93%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	228941	19754
2002	254642	35956
2003	215889	48708
2004	214102	47596
2005	252586	58256
2006	202379	45756
2007	275697	62961
2008	229666	52716
2009	209155	47977
2010	179250	40071
2011	218064	49917
2012	219622	194362
2013	214372	214372
2014	196633	196633
2015	226278	226278
2016	218683	218683
2017	198941	198941
2018	220591	305993
2019	163704	328060
2020	185084	365498
2021	206825	407319
2022	161618	319944
2023	189048	371300
2024	192438	378890
2025	202902	405346
2026	135149	394511

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.3×

Raw data

› 8.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 7,655
Usual (median): 3,347
Rank: 4 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 8.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.3×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~6,261.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue28°

Wed28°

Thu28°

Fri29°

Sat29°

Right now

early November

This week4,023

This week is more active than 64% of past years at this time

Year to date135,149

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 161,894

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~6,262 expected · usual 4,416

Next 3 months

About usual

~109,901 expected · usual 125,064

likely 31,437–158,941 · usual 47,394–226,603

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late March

Onset: late November
Peak: early February
End: late March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +93%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2009
209,155
season began 3 weeks early
2026
135,149
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks early

Districts and provinces

91

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Ethiopia

Next 7 daysModerate32%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 2007275,698
Trend: −9%/ 10significant · on raw data: +93%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	228941	19754
2002	254642	35956
2003	215889	48708
2004	214102	47596
2005	252586	58256
2006	202379	45756
2007	275697	62961
2008	229666	52716
2009	209155	47977
2010	179250	40071
2011	218064	49917
2012	219622	194362
2013	214372	214372
2014	196633	196633
2015	226278	226278
2016	218683	218683
2017	198941	198941
2018	220591	305993
2019	163704	328060
2020	185084	365498
2021	206825	407319
2022	161618	319944
2023	189048	371300
2024	192438	378890
2025	202902	405346
2026	135149	394511

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.3×

Raw data

› 8.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 7,655
Usual (median): 3,347
Rank: 4 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 8.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.3×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~6,261.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue28°

Wed28°

Thu28°

Fri29°

Sat29°

Right now

early November

This week4,023

This week is more active than 64% of past years at this time

Year to date135,149

#24 of 26 yearsNormal: 161,894

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~6,262 expected · usual 4,416

Next 3 months

About usual

~109,901 expected · usual 125,064

likely 31,437–158,941 · usual 47,394–226,603

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late March

Onset: late November
Peak: early February
End: late March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +93%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2009
209,155
season began 3 weeks early
2026
135,149
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks early

Districts and provinces

91

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson