Jimma

Next 7 daysModerate38%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 20014,041
Trend: −31%/ 10significant · on raw data: +97%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	4041	230
2002	3886	373
2003	3495	597
2004	2566	391
2005	3930	658
2006	2863	472
2007	3225	549
2008	2810	478
2009	1934	278
2010	2284	350
2011	2567	412
2012	2618	2262
2013	1802	1802
2014	1687	1687
2015	3027	3027
2016	2244	2244
2017	2480	2480
2018	2126	2772
2019	1713	3360
2020	1712	3365
2021	2108	4442
2022	1508	3039
2023	2089	3939
2024	1566	3022
2025	2434	4957
2026	1465	4230

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.3×

Raw data

› 14.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 90
Usual (median): 21
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 14.8× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.3×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~62.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun26°

Mon26°

Tue28°

Wed27°

Thu26°

Fri26°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~62 expected · usual 40

Next 3 months

About usual

~1,438 expected · usual 1,502

likely 711–2,317 · usual 427–3,027

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – late March

Onset: early December
Peak: early February
End: late March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
71% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −31%/10Raw: +97%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2009 (p 0.006): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

1

2018
2,126
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson