Dollo

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 2021354
Trend: +9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +25%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	36	0
2002	27	0
2003	13	0
2004	14	1
2005	16	1
2006	24	3
2007	32	5
2008	12	0
2009	16	2
2010	13	0
2011	14	2
2012	4	3
2013	40	40
2014	53	53
2015	7	7
2016	21	21
2017	6	6
2018	171	310
2019	52	91
2020	217	401
2021	354	660
2022	4	16
2023	3	6
2024	20	48
2025	58	113
2026	4	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

No rain expected in the coming days↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun33°

Mon34°

Tue34°

Wed33°

Thu33°

Fri34°

Sat35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~3.7 expected · usual 30

likely 1.0–88 · usual 0.0–47

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – early March

Onset: late July
Peak: late December
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid December – early March
53% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +9%/10Raw: +25%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 96.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.74).

Unusual years

13

2009
16
season began 9 weeks early
2013
40
season ended 13 weeks early
2014
53
season began 24 weeks late
2016
21
season began 22 weeks late
2017
6
season began 12 weeks early
2018
171
8.6× the normal annual activity
peak 18× stronger than normal
season ended 10 weeks early
2019
52
season began 22 weeks late
2020
217
11× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season ended 10 weeks early
2021
354
18× the normal annual activity
peak 20× stronger than normal
2023
3
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks early
2024
20
season ended 10 weeks early
2025
58
season began 10 weeks early
2026
4
season began 26 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson