Guraghe

Next 7 daysVery high63%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early December – early March
Record year: 2025991
Trend: −3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	580	58
2002	618	111
2003	503	115
2004	544	120
2005	759	195
2006	496	109
2007	770	179
2008	480	100
2009	374	66
2010	569	125
2011	499	112
2012	514	400
2013	427	427
2014	346	346
2015	498	498
2016	405	405
2017	388	388
2018	481	620
2019	417	871
2020	458	897
2021	543	1164
2022	474	900
2023	764	1555
2024	546	1079
2025	991	2050
2026	672	2047

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 10.6×

Raw data

› 44.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 42
Usual (median): 4.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 44.5× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 10.6×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~15.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun18°

Mon18°

Tue19°

Wed20°

Thu20°

Fri20°

Sat20°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~16 expected · usual 10

Next 3 months

About usual

~389 expected · usual 444

likely 84–890 · usual 35–1,023

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early March

Onset: late November
Peak: late December
End: early March

Critical windows

early December – early March
77% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −3%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.24).

Unusual years

13

2002
618
season began 6 weeks early
2003
503
season began 4 weeks early
2004
544
season began 4 weeks early
2005
759
1.5× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks early
2007
770
1.5× the normal annual activity
peak 1.8× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
2009
374
season ended 5 weeks late
2010
569
season began 6 weeks early
2013
427
season ended 3 weeks early
2015
498
season began 3 weeks late
2019
417
season began 3 weeks late
2023
764
1.5× the normal annual activity
2025
991
2.0× the normal annual activity
peak 1.8× stronger than normal
2026
672
peak 1.8× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson