Metekel

Next 7 daysVery high67%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – early January
Record year: 201639,889
Trend: −4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	33111	3050
2002	38582	6342
2003	31711	7346
2004	33586	7544
2005	36223	8390
2006	35349	8284
2007	39831	8971
2008	36550	8580
2009	35826	8294
2010	31218	7179
2011	39158	9135
2012	34711	31312
2013	34660	34660
2014	36359	36359
2015	36602	36602
2016	39889	39889
2017	33727	33727
2018	35878	51161
2019	27299	54408
2020	35626	70669
2021	30869	60574
2022	30012	59364
2023	34121	66475
2024	33896	66767
2025	30092	60342
2026	24645	70817

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.2×

Raw data

› 12.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 2,302
Usual (median): 718
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 12.5× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 3.2×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~1,730.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun34°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu37°

Fri37°

Sat36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~1,730 expected · usual 1,059

Next 3 months

About usual

~19,511 expected · usual 24,105

likely 2,563–22,290 · usual 13,891–39,960

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late March

Onset: late November
Peak: mid December
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late November – early January
30% of annual activity
mid January – early February
18% of annual activity
late February – early March
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −4%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

4

2009
35,827
season began 3 weeks early
2024
33,896
season began 3 weeks late
2025
30,092
season began 4 weeks late
2026
24,645
season began 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson