Ari Zone

Next 7 daysModerate22%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early December – early March
Record year: 2012857
Trend: −9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	640	37
2002	601	60
2003	630	114
2004	502	94
2005	848	174
2006	261	38
2007	782	146
2008	643	119
2009	200	29
2010	452	82
2011	323	49
2012	857	755
2013	620	620
2014	526	526
2015	580	580
2016	799	799
2017	443	443
2018	578	777
2019	439	845
2020	484	975
2021	721	1412
2022	277	571
2023	335	638
2024	423	800
2025	728	1427
2026	516	1538

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 3.4
Usual (median): 1.2
Rank: 8 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~5.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (46%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue32°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri33°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~5.1 expected · usual 5.6

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~226 expected · usual 468

likely 56–692 · usual 16–1,012

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late February

Onset: late November
Peak: early February
End: late February

Critical windows

early December – early March
81% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.85).

Unusual years

8

2002
601
season began 13 weeks early
2006
261
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2009
200
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks early
2017
443
season ended 4 weeks early
2022
277
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2023
335
season began 13 weeks early
2024
423
season ended 4 weeks late
2026
516
season began 18 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson