Hareri

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: about 18 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – mid March
Record year: 20214
Trend: −17%/ 10significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	2	0
2003	1	0
2004	1	0
2005	1	0
2006	1	0
2007	2	0
2008	2	0
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	2	2
2013	1	1
2014	1	1
2015	1	1
2016	1	1
2017	0	0
2018	3	3
2019	1	1
2020	1	2
2021	4	6
2022	1	1
2023	1	2
2024	1	2
2025	1	1
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Dry air (29%)↑
A dry month (38 mm)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun29°

Mon29°

Tue29°

Wed29°

Thu30°

Fri30°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.2

likely 0.0–1.1 · usual 0.0–0.5

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid March

Onset: early November
Peak: early March
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late January – mid March
57% of annual activity
late December – mid January
9% of annual activity
late October – early November
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −17%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 0.0× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

12

2013
1
season began 12 weeks late
2014
1
season began 10 weeks late
2015
1
season began 14 weeks late
2016
1
season began 16 weeks late
2018
3
2.3× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late
2019
1
season began 15 weeks late
2020
1
season began 13 weeks late
2021
4
3.0× the normal annual activity
2022
1
season ended 18 weeks early
2023
1
season began 11 weeks late
2024
1
season began 15 weeks late
2025
1
season ended 20 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson