Ale Zone

Next 7 daysLow14%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – late March
Record year: 2008258
Trend: +11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +84%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	73	1
2002	96	4
2003	53	2
2004	79	7
2005	36	0
2006	111	15
2007	152	20
2008	258	43
2009	95	10
2010	58	2
2011	108	12
2012	40	33
2013	96	96
2014	79	79
2015	130	130
2016	107	107
2017	56	56
2018	68	98
2019	145	270
2020	19	42
2021	199	421
2022	129	305
2023	74	151
2024	26	48
2025	202	425
2026	189	571

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Fires where there usually are none

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Dry air (46%)↑

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue32°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri33°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 0.5

Next 3 months

About usual

~19 expected · usual 21

likely 4.6–70 · usual 0.0–35

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early March

Onset: early November
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

late December – late March
84% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +11%/10Raw: +84%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 13.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.92).

Unusual years

6

2002
96
season began 19 weeks early
2008
258
2.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
19
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
129
season ended 4 weeks early
2024
26
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2026
189
season began 19 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson