Wag Hemra Zone

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – late March
Record year: 201031
Trend: −5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +98%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	22	1
2002	10	0
2003	9	0
2004	16	1
2005	9	0
2006	11	1
2007	10	0
2008	9	0
2009	26	2
2010	31	3
2011	11	1
2012	1	0
2013	13	13
2014	13	13
2015	2	2
2016	5	5
2017	7	7
2018	11	15
2019	4	18
2020	6	9
2021	17	29
2022	25	52
2023	17	44
2024	8	22
2025	11	17
2026	5	25

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

No rain expected in the coming days↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun29°

Mon29°

Tue31°

Wed31°

Thu31°

Fri31°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.1 expected · usual 3.8

likely 0.0–11 · usual 0.0–11

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late May

Onset: late November
Peak: mid March
End: late May

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – late March
42% of annual activity
mid December – late December
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −5%/10Raw: +98%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 25.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

7

2010
31
season ended 7 weeks early
2015
2
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2016
5
season began 10 weeks early
season ended 14 weeks early
2017
7
season ended 10 weeks late
2020
6
season began 14 weeks early
2021
17
season ended 6 weeks early
2026
5
season began 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson