Dirree Dhawaa / Dir Dhabe / ድሬዳዋ

Next 7 daysModerate33%

Peak fire period now · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early January
Record year: 200246
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +114%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	21	0
2002	46	4
2003	21	0
2004	21	0
2005	21	0
2006	21	0
2007	21	0
2008	21	0
2009	21	0
2010	21	0
2011	21	0
2012	7	5
2013	7	7
2014	24	24
2015	23	23
2016	12	12
2017	14	14
2018	31	56
2019	25	50
2020	14	32
2021	21	66
2022	29	74
2023	17	32
2024	31	77
2025	38	67
2026	30	94

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (32%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri34°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.1 expected · usual 0.9

Next 3 months

About usual

~11 expected · usual 9.7

likely 3.3–22 · usual 0.0–16

Season

Ends ~31 May
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid September – late May

Onset: mid September
Peak: late November
End: late May

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early November – early January
28% of annual activity
mid October – mid October
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +114%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 54.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.46).

Unusual years

14

2002
46
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks late
2012
7
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
2013
7
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2014
24
season began 13 weeks late
2015
23
season began 3 weeks early
2016
12
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 20 weeks late
2017
14
season began 7 weeks early
2019
25
season began 5 weeks late
2020
14
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 14 weeks early
2022
29
season began 4 weeks late
2023
17
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 14 weeks early
2024
31
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 9 weeks early
2025
38
1.8× the normal annual activity
2026
30
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 11 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson