Liben

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – late March
Record year: 2002131
Trend: −24%/ 10significant · on raw data: +105%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	63	1
2002	131	8
2003	111	17
2004	83	12
2005	51	5
2006	83	12
2007	100	18
2008	81	14
2009	47	3
2010	39	1
2011	74	10
2012	40	37
2013	52	52
2014	93	93
2015	76	76
2016	80	80
2017	50	50
2018	14	23
2019	53	105
2020	38	52
2021	46	97
2022	51	102
2023	45	90
2024	72	156
2025	77	153
2026	43	146

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.9
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

Dry air (47%)↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun28°

Mon28°

Tue29°

Wed30°

Thu31°

Fri30°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~10 expected · usual 15

likely 1.0–32 · usual 0.0–25

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~15 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late August – late March

Onset: late August
Peak: mid February
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid January – late March
55% of annual activity
early September – mid September
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −24%/10Raw: +105%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2009 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

12

2002
131
season began 4 weeks early
2006
83
season began 3 weeks late
2008
81
season began 3 weeks late
2009
47
season began 6 weeks early
2010
39
season ended 3 weeks late
2015
76
season began 10 weeks early
2017
50
season began 3 weeks late
2018
14
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2019
53
season began 17 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2023
45
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
77
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
43
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson