Sidama

Next 7 daysHigh51%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 2025301
Trend: +19%/ 10significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	77	0
2002	72	1
2003	52	3
2004	81	7
2005	69	5
2006	81	11
2007	139	18
2008	158	28
2009	48	3
2010	77	8
2011	91	9
2012	186	158
2013	75	75
2014	73	73
2015	81	81
2016	24	24
2017	45	45
2018	81	132
2019	86	197
2020	119	236
2021	148	296
2022	72	134
2023	111	216
2024	268	584
2025	301	610
2026	154	454

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 5.0
Usual (median): 1.1
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~1.6

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun25°

Mon25°

Tue26°

Wed25°

Thu25°

Fri26°

Sat26°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~1.6 expected · usual 0.9

Next 3 months

About usual

~69 expected · usual 73

likely 12–228 · usual 2.1–120

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~15 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early March

Onset: late November
Peak: mid February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +19%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 24.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.18).

Unusual years

16

2001
77
season ended 3 weeks late
2002
72
season ended 3 weeks late
2003
52
season ended 4 weeks late
2007
139
1.7× the normal annual activity
2008
158
2.0× the normal annual activity
2009
48
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks early
2010
77
season ended 3 weeks early
2012
186
2.3× the normal annual activity
2016
24
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2017
45
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late
2018
81
season ended 4 weeks early
2021
148
1.8× the normal annual activity
2023
111
season began 14 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
268
3.3× the normal annual activity
peak 3.8× stronger than normal
2025
301
3.7× the normal annual activity
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2026
154
1.9× the normal annual activity
season began 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson