Yem Zone

Next 7 daysExtreme83%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early December – early March
Record year: 2002343
Trend: −2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +105%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	286	17
2002	343	39
2003	179	14
2004	218	30
2005	266	41
2006	206	27
2007	261	45
2008	214	27
2009	126	8
2010	156	17
2011	237	33
2012	245	205
2013	204	204
2014	226	226
2015	312	312
2016	188	188
2017	227	227
2018	178	216
2019	198	411
2020	181	379
2021	288	612
2022	201	376
2023	273	526
2024	198	412
2025	341	661
2026	184	604

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 13.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 22
Usual (median): 1.6
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~8.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun26°

Mon26°

Tue28°

Wed27°

Thu26°

Fri26°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~8.2 expected · usual 3.1

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~180 expected · usual 147

likely 67–316 · usual 38–339

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~25 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – early March

Onset: early December
Peak: late January
End: early March

Critical windows

early December – early March
80% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −2%/10Raw: +105%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

11

2002
343
season began 5 weeks early
2003
179
season ended 5 weeks late
2004
218
season ended 3 weeks late
2005
266
season ended 3 weeks late
2009
126
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2010
156
season began 4 weeks early
2012
245
season began 4 weeks late
2015
312
season began 4 weeks late
2017
227
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2019
198
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
184
season began 6 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson