East Shewa

Next 7 daysVery high72%

Fire season: about 28 weeks left · 3.8× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – mid March
Record year: 2025549
Trend: +30%/ 10significant · on raw data: +114%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	157	10
2002	137	12
2003	99	13
2004	115	23
2005	115	20
2006	110	24
2007	121	25
2008	128	25
2009	130	32
2010	111	31
2011	112	16
2012	138	129
2013	55	55
2014	101	101
2015	157	157
2016	209	209
2017	176	176
2018	167	275
2019	145	313
2020	170	420
2021	247	495
2022	225	433
2023	201	382
2024	262	518
2025	549	1118
2026	266	722

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.5×

Raw data

2.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 6.0
Usual (median): 4.1
Rank: 7 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.7× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.5×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~6.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun26°

Mon28°

Tue29°

Wed27°

Thu28°

Fri29°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~6.3 expected · usual 2.8

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~102 expected · usual 78

likely 23–217 · usual 11–173

Season

Ends ~24 May
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – late May

Onset: mid October
Peak: early March
End: late May

Critical windows

mid January – mid March
31% of annual activity
mid December – early January
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +30%/10Raw: +114%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 16.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2013
55
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2016
209
season ended 8 weeks early
2017
176
season began 10 weeks late
2020
170
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
247
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
201
season began 8 weeks early
2024
262
1.9× the normal annual activity
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
2025
549
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2026
266
1.9× the normal annual activity
peak 3.8× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson