Silt'e

Next 7 daysLow14%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 201331
Trend: −11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +74%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16	0
2002	14	2
2003	13	0
2004	15	5
2005	16	4
2006	16	3
2007	14	3
2008	17	7
2009	19	5
2010	17	6
2011	14	3
2012	24	23
2013	31	31
2014	22	22
2015	20	20
2016	12	12
2017	14	14
2018	14	17
2019	15	26
2020	13	24
2021	25	55
2022	7	21
2023	10	21
2024	6	12
2025	12	34
2026	8	18

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.7

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Strong wind (2.1 m/s)↑

Sun18°

Mon18°

Tue19°

Wed20°

Thu20°

Fri20°

Sat20°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.7 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~11 expected · usual 7.9

likely 2.6–15 · usual 0.0–20

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~18 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid April

Onset: late November
Peak: mid January
End: mid April

Critical windows

mid December – early March
59% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −11%/10Raw: +74%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

14

2012
24
1.6× the normal annual activity
peak 3.1× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2013
31
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2014
22
season ended 7 weeks early
2016
12
season began 3 weeks early
2017
14
season began 3 weeks late
2018
14
season began 7 weeks late
2019
15
season began 5 weeks early
2020
13
season ended 8 weeks early
2021
25
1.7× the normal annual activity
2022
7
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks late
2023
10
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
season ended 9 weeks early
2024
6
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
2025
12
season began 5 weeks early
2026
8
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson