Arsi

Next 7 daysModerate23%

Fire season starts in about 8 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early January – late March
Record year: 20082,176
Trend: +2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +66%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	440	17
2002	410	19
2003	571	87
2004	463	54
2005	679	107
2006	365	46
2007	1015	167
2008	2176	480
2009	625	86
2010	290	36
2011	1007	166
2012	1908	1796
2013	715	715
2014	916	916
2015	1218	1218
2016	146	146
2017	298	298
2018	556	686
2019	742	1520
2020	314	638
2021	1310	2591
2022	484	1002
2023	181	335
2024	418	786
2025	1923	3885
2026	297	1055

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.87×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.9
Usual (median): 2.2
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.7

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Strong wind (2.0 m/s)↑

Sun21°

Mon21°

Tue21°

Wed21°

Thu22°

Fri22°

Sat23°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.7 expected · usual 2.6

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~117 expected · usual 185

likely 41–288 · usual 17–355

Season

Starts ~4 January
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early January – late March

Onset: early January
Peak: late February
End: late March

Critical windows

early January – late March
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +2%/10Raw: +66%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.85).

Unusual years

9

2001
440
season ended 6 weeks late
2002
410
season ended 6 weeks late
2004
463
season ended 8 weeks late
2010
290
season ended 4 weeks late
2013
715
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
314
season began 7 weeks early
2023
181
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
1,923
peak 4.5× stronger than normal
2026
297
season ended 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson