West Arsi

Next 7 daysModerate22%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early January – late March
Record year: 20081,345
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	451	50
2002	470	54
2003	323	75
2004	504	101
2005	476	133
2006	381	92
2007	556	124
2008	1345	332
2009	292	63
2010	189	28
2011	340	78
2012	926	868
2013	277	277
2014	173	173
2015	771	771
2016	167	167
2017	164	164
2018	370	410
2019	344	711
2020	314	607
2021	539	949
2022	380	793
2023	195	351
2024	244	532
2025	665	1335
2026	230	775

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.7

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun22°

Mon23°

Tue24°

Wed24°

Thu24°

Fri24°

Sat24°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.7 expected · usual 1.2

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~74 expected · usual 105

likely 1.0–136 · usual 14–277

Season

Starts ~11 January
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid January – late March

Onset: mid January
Peak: early February
End: late March

Critical windows

early January – late March
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.26).

Unusual years

10

2002
470
season began 3 weeks late
2008
1,345
3.6× the normal annual activity
2010
189
season began 5 weeks early
2012
926
peak 3.5× stronger than normal
2015
771
season began 4 weeks late
2016
167
season began 3 weeks early
2019
344
season began 3 weeks late
2020
314
season began 3 weeks early
2022
380
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
665
season ended 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson