Addis Ababa

Next 7 daysModerate22%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late November
Record year: 200846
Trend: −27%/ 10significant · on raw data: +102%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	23	3
2002	23	3
2003	18	1
2004	24	4
2005	28	4
2006	26	3
2007	44	10
2008	46	6
2009	31	2
2010	17	1
2011	33	5
2012	15	14
2013	16	16
2014	12	12
2015	11	11
2016	9	9
2017	10	10
2018	8	15
2019	20	41
2020	22	35
2021	9	31
2022	22	41
2023	32	60
2024	15	42
2025	16	43
2026	12	49

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.8×

Raw data

› 6.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 3.8
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 5 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 6.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 3.8×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑

Sun20°

Mon20°

Tue21°

Wed22°

Thu22°

Fri21°

Sat21°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1.1 expected · usual 0.8

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~3.6 expected · usual 5.8

likely 2.7–11 · usual 0.0–14

Season

Ends ~31 May
Peak ~25 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early October – late May

Onset: early October
Peak: late October
End: late May

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid October – late November
21% of annual activity
late January – early February
10% of annual activity
late March – mid April
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −27%/10Raw: +102%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.006): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2008
46
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
2009
31
peak 3.2× stronger than normal
2015
11
season began 8 weeks early
2017
10
season began 7 weeks late
2018
8
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2023
32
season began 8 weeks early
2025
16
season began 7 weeks early
2026
12
season ended 9 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson