Burji Zone

Next 7 daysLow13%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 2025604
Trend: −4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +69%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	205	7
2002	298	15
2003	109	10
2004	63	4
2005	147	13
2006	67	3
2007	341	49
2008	233	32
2009	100	8
2010	69	3
2011	190	25
2012	63	55
2013	62	62
2014	57	57
2015	81	81
2016	44	44
2017	38	38
2018	72	114
2019	231	421
2020	68	147
2021	304	591
2022	101	207
2023	95	193
2024	134	251
2025	604	1212
2026	456	1290

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Strong wind (6.7 m/s)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun24°

Mon24°

Tue25°

Wed25°

Thu26°

Fri27°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.6

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~45 expected · usual 61

likely 1.0–254 · usual 0.0–159

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early March

Onset: late November
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
84% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −4%/10Raw: +69%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 16.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.68).

Unusual years

6

2002
298
peak 4.6× stronger than normal
2018
72
season ended 3 weeks early
2021
304
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
2024
134
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
604
6.0× the normal annual activity
peak 7.0× stronger than normal
2026
456
4.6× the normal annual activity
peak 4.1× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson