North Shewa (Amhara Region)

Next 7 daysHigh52%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid May – late June
Record year: 2025787
Trend: +13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +97%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	165	5
2002	184	10
2003	117	4
2004	183	17
2005	290	29
2006	179	13
2007	161	9
2008	265	38
2009	241	26
2010	185	14
2011	149	7
2012	143	133
2013	191	191
2014	126	126
2015	112	112
2016	82	82
2017	114	114
2018	128	158
2019	151	288
2020	208	401
2021	339	693
2022	277	552
2023	268	495
2024	459	942
2025	787	1543
2026	380	1196

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 11
Usual (median): 2.9
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~5.3

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Dry air (32%)↑

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue29°

Wed30°

Thu30°

Fri31°

Sat30°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~5.3 expected · usual 2.9

Next 3 months

About usual

~78 expected · usual 65

likely 23–237 · usual 9.4–120

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~14 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid June

Onset: late November
Peak: mid June
End: mid June

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid May – late June
24% of annual activity
mid March – mid April
17% of annual activity
late February – early March
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +13%/10Raw: +97%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 26.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2004
183
season ended 3 weeks early
2005
290
peak 3.3× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 8 weeks early
2008
265
season ended 3 weeks early
2013
191
season began 6 weeks late
2014
126
season began 7 weeks late
2016
82
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early
2018
128
season ended 5 weeks early
2024
459
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
2025
787
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 5.4× stronger than normal
2026
380
peak 2.3× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson