Dawro

Next 7 daysModerate27%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – late February
Record year: 20075,641
Trend: −18%/ 10significant · on raw data: +89%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3107	194
2002	3613	417
2003	2669	504
2004	2417	449
2005	3173	620
2006	2019	387
2007	5641	1106
2008	1937	358
2009	1962	369
2010	2784	547
2011	2239	424
2012	2838	2210
2013	2438	2438
2014	2329	2329
2015	2436	2436
2016	2668	2668
2017	2195	2195
2018	2166	2884
2019	2209	4344
2020	1924	3901
2021	2402	4940
2022	1294	2553
2023	1800	3714
2024	1832	3611
2025	2395	4853
2026	879	2531

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.0×

Raw data

› 8.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 81
Usual (median): 41
Rank: 8 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 8.7× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.0×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~78.7

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (59%)↑
A dry month (127 mm)↑

Sun24°

Mon24°

Tue25°

Wed24°

Thu24°

Fri24°

Sat25°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~79 expected · usual 76

Next 3 months

About usual

~1,691 expected · usual 1,965

likely 694–2,953 · usual 275–3,929

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late February

Onset: late November
Peak: early February
End: late February

Critical windows

late November – late February
79% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −18%/10Raw: +89%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.03): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

14

2002
3,613
peak 1.7× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
2003
2,669
season began 3 weeks early
2004
2,417
season began 3 weeks early
2007
5,641
2.4× the normal annual activity
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
2009
1,962
season began 3 weeks early
2010
2,784
season began 3 weeks early
2012
2,838
season began 3 weeks late
2015
2,436
season began 4 weeks late
2017
2,195
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2019
2,209
peak 1.5× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
1,924
season began 3 weeks early
2022
1,294
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2023
1,800
season began 3 weeks late
2026
879
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 22 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson