Zone 2

Next 7 daysLow1%

Peak fire period now · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early October – late December
Record year: 20188,553
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	784	244
2002	499	27
2003	428	21
2004	484	90
2005	462	39
2006	500	88
2007	454	24
2008	683	128
2009	498	71
2010	527	109
2011	635	138
2012	59	14
2013	13	13
2014	5	5
2015	15	15
2016	22	22
2017	7876	7876
2018	8553	11126
2019	109	802
2020	30	64
2021	36	99
2022	4	76
2023	35	71
2024	25	43
2025	28	47
2026	24	66

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 19 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun28°

Mon30°

Tue33°

Wed34°

Thu33°

Fri33°

Sat33°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 24

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~14 expected · usual 344

likely 1.0–132 · usual 0.0–297

Season

Ends ~3 May
Peak ~30 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – early May

Onset: early August
Peak: late November
End: early May

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early October – late December
36% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.34). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2017
7,876
season ended 19 weeks early
2019
109
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson