Eastern Tigray

Next 7 daysLow2%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late October – late November
Record year: 20135
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +39%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2	1
2002	2	1
2003	2	0
2004	2	0
2005	2	0
2006	2	0
2007	2	0
2008	2	0
2009	2	0
2010	2	0
2011	2	0
2012	2	2
2013	5	5
2014	3	3
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	2	2
2018	1	1
2019	0	1
2020	4	14
2021	3	7
2022	0	1
2023	1	1
2024	2	7
2025	4	6
2026	3	13

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Dry air (44%)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun28°

Mon29°

Tue30°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri32°

Sat33°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.5

likely 0.0–5.0 · usual 0.0–0.7

Season

Ends ~21 June
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – late June

Onset: mid October
Peak: early November
End: late June

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late October – late November
23% of annual activity
early May – early June
18% of annual activity
early February – mid February
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +39%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 20.0× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

12

2012
2
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2013
5
2.6× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
2014
3
1.6× the normal annual activity
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
2016
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
season began 31 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks early
2017
2
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2018
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
season ended 33 weeks early
2020
4
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 15× stronger than normal
season ended 10 weeks early
2021
3
1.6× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks early
2023
1
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
season ended 39 weeks early
2024
2
peak 10× stronger than normal
season ended 32 weeks early
2025
4
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 15× stronger than normal
season began 33 weeks late
2026
3
1.6× the normal annual activity
peak 5.1× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson