South Omo

Next 7 daysModerate36%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left · 0.1× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 20256,249
Trend: +11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +93%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2296	175
2002	3047	398
2003	3482	754
2004	3507	723
2005	4247	1006
2006	1877	401
2007	5855	1263
2008	3636	810
2009	1844	399
2010	2832	632
2011	2056	433
2012	4587	4203
2013	4516	4516
2014	3565	3565
2015	3607	3607
2016	4361	4361
2017	2768	2768
2018	4661	6014
2019	3192	6222
2020	3043	6194
2021	6116	11746
2022	2405	5048
2023	3217	6278
2024	3649	7298
2025	6249	12294
2026	5135	15250

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.8×

Raw data

› 6.4×

usual = 1×

This month: 41
Usual (median): 23
Rank: 9 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 6.4× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.8×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~56.3

Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun33°

Mon33°

Tue34°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri36°

Sat37°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~56 expected · usual 44

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,498 expected · usual 1,890

likely 334–3,407 · usual 70–4,148

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid September – early March

Onset: mid September
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
70% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +11%/10Raw: +93%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

5

2003
3,482
season ended 5 weeks late
2021
6,116
peak 1.9× stronger than normal
2024
3,649
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
6,249
peak 2.2× stronger than normal
2026
5,135
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson