Asosa

Next 7 daysVery high67%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – late February
Record year: 200716,909
Trend: −8%/ 10significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	14113	1459
2002	14079	2252
2003	14451	3617
2004	13340	3294
2005	15546	3985
2006	13628	3454
2007	16909	4323
2008	15481	3961
2009	14939	3780
2010	13171	3278
2011	15106	3827
2012	15639	13925
2013	14614	14614
2014	14706	14706
2015	15462	15462
2016	14387	14387
2017	14450	14450
2018	14479	19897
2019	11156	22190
2020	14045	27841
2021	12787	25274
2022	10102	20087
2023	12099	23907
2024	11856	23434
2025	11734	23684
2026	9002	26041

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.5×

Raw data

› 14.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 636
Usual (median): 249
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 14.9× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.5×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~546.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Dry air (27%)↑

Sun30°

Mon31°

Tue31°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri32°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~547 expected · usual 385

Next 3 months

About usual

~9,192 expected · usual 9,689

likely 2,564–12,147 · usual 4,848–16,018

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~25 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late March

Onset: late November
Peak: late January
End: late March

Critical windows

late November – late February
69% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.010): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

3

2008
15,481
season began 3 weeks early
2017
14,450
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
2026
9,002
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson