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RegionsEthiopia

Nuer

Next 7 daysExtreme100%

Fire season starts in about 7 weeks

Annual mean
0detections
Peak period
late December – late March
Record year
201511,085
Trend
+15%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +102%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
YearHarmonizedRaw
20017065661
2002101651428
200340301038
200455681477
200555511441
200654781406
200772771930
200872491945
200985562266
20103886994
201170951923
201256394798
201360456045
201465516551
20151108511085
201654285428
201785178517
20181018013237
2019520810397
2020521110270
2021906117880
20221000719555
2023940118326
2024803815853
2025859216558
2026761922091

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR
› 68.5×
usual = 1×
This month
87
Usual (median)
1.3
Rank
1 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

0%

Extreme

Expected detections: ~244.7

  • Fires detected in recent days↑
  • An active part of the fire season↑
  • This year is more active than normal↑
Sun38°
Mon38°
Tue38°
Wed37°
Thu38°
Fri39°
Sat38°

Right now

early November

This week173

This week is more active than 100% of past years at this time

Year to date7,619
#9 of 26 yearsNormal: 6,606

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~245 expected · usual 11

Next 3 months

About usual

~2,233 expected · usual 2,253

likely 509–5,219 · usual 140–5,032

Season

  • Starts ~28 December
  • Peak ~8 February
ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week
How sure is this?
  • Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
  • Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
  • Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
  • Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late December – early April

Onset
late December
Peak
early February
End
early April

Critical windows

  • late December – late March

    80% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +15%/10Raw: +102%/10
HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 6.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

2

  • 2023

    9,401

    season ended 6 weeks late

  • 2026

    7,619

    season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csvannual.csvhotspots.geojson
ODLARODLAR

One fire history for the Land of Fire.

Built for the NASA Space Apps Challenge 2026.

ExploreRegionsRiskHarmonizationMethodologyDataSimple mode

Data sources

NASA FIRMS, NASA POWER, Open-Meteo, OpenStreetMap, geoBoundaries, OpenFreeMap

ODLAR is not an official warning service. In an emergency call 112.