Kemashi

Next 7 daysVery high63%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 201118,816
Trend: −6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +91%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	16093	1410
2002	17322	2546
2003	11770	2789
2004	15539	3759
2005	15228	3674
2006	16841	4157
2007	18795	4538
2008	17661	4315
2009	18072	4341
2010	14485	3492
2011	18816	4586
2012	15782	13639
2013	15709	15709
2014	16653	16653
2015	18151	18151
2016	18590	18590
2017	16147	16147
2018	17881	23679
2019	13308	26143
2020	15565	30871
2021	15019	30194
2022	13194	26341
2023	14736	28921
2024	14384	27889
2025	14242	28290
2026	10707	31082

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 5.6×

Raw data

› 23.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 637
Usual (median): 113
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 23.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 5.6×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~374.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Dry air (27%)↑

Sun30°

Mon31°

Tue31°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri32°

Sat31°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~374 expected · usual 305

Next 3 months

About usual

~9,192 expected · usual 9,328

likely 2,564–12,146 · usual 5,523–15,797

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – mid March

Onset: early December
Peak: early February
End: mid March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −6%/10Raw: +91%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

3

2008
17,661
season began 3 weeks early
2024
14,384
season began 3 weeks late
2026
10,707
season began 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson