South Wollo

Next 7 daysModerate21%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid April – late May
Record year: 202590
Trend: −20%/ 10significant · on raw data: +95%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	67	2
2002	46	1
2003	69	11
2004	84	15
2005	47	4
2006	61	7
2007	57	5
2008	47	4
2009	45	5
2010	71	10
2011	43	3
2012	61	58
2013	81	81
2014	77	77
2015	33	33
2016	21	21
2017	41	41
2018	54	101
2019	41	90
2020	24	40
2021	41	95
2022	36	77
2023	29	79
2024	45	97
2025	90	193
2026	58	172

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.94×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.9
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.7

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Rain expected (52 mm)↓

Sun16°

Mon15°

Tue16°

Wed16°

Thu16°

Fri15°

Sat16°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.7 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

About usual

~17 expected · usual 23

likely 5.6–49 · usual 0.0–38

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – early June

Onset: early December
Peak: early May
End: early June

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid April – late May
24% of annual activity
early March – mid March
10% of annual activity
late December – early January
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +95%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 12.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2015
33
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2016
21
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
41
season ended 3 weeks early
2018
54
season ended 3 weeks early
2019
41
season ended 5 weeks early
2022
36
season began 9 weeks late
2023
29
season ended 6 weeks early
2025
90
season began 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson