Gardula Zone

Next 7 daysLow10%

Fire season starts in about 5 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – early March
Record year: 2008199
Trend: −17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +72%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	81	6
2002	71	4
2003	34	2
2004	24	1
2005	25	1
2006	40	4
2007	19	0
2008	199	21
2009	22	0
2010	17	0
2011	73	8
2012	40	36
2013	19	19
2014	18	18
2015	35	35
2016	18	18
2017	15	15
2018	21	26
2019	35	93
2020	28	50
2021	73	135
2022	48	102
2023	14	33
2024	10	16
2025	46	98
2026	26	94

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (46%)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun30°

Mon30°

Tue32°

Wed31°

Thu32°

Fri33°

Sat34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 1.0

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~14 expected · usual 32

likely 1.0–63 · usual 0.0–20

Season

Starts ~14 December
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid December – early March

Onset: mid December
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid January – early March
56% of annual activity
early December – early January
26% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −17%/10Raw: +72%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

9

2008
199
7.1× the normal annual activity
peak 8.5× stronger than normal
2010
17
season began 13 weeks early
2011
73
season ended 4 weeks late
2012
40
season ended 3 weeks late
2016
18
season began 17 weeks early
2017
15
season ended 3 weeks early
2020
28
season ended 9 weeks early
2024
10
season began 17 weeks early
2026
26
season began 18 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson