Konta Zone

Next 7 daysHigh43%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early December – early March
Record year: 20076,162
Trend: −9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +88%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3200	219
2002	3121	329
2003	2826	619
2004	3456	760
2005	4340	986
2006	2333	522
2007	6162	1410
2008	1603	351
2009	2092	461
2010	2669	595
2011	2901	644
2012	3145	2541
2013	2978	2978
2014	2776	2776
2015	3316	3316
2016	3571	3571
2017	2867	2867
2018	2846	3418
2019	2968	5807
2020	2515	5011
2021	3202	6204
2022	1478	3091
2023	2533	5035
2024	2206	4413
2025	2642	5408
2026	1213	3478

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.1×

Raw data

› 13.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 62
Usual (median): 15
Rank: 3 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 13.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.1×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~52.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun24°

Mon24°

Tue25°

Wed24°

Thu24°

Fri24°

Sat25°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~53 expected · usual 40

Next 3 months

About usual

~2,045 expected · usual 2,189

likely 458–3,401 · usual 88–4,761

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – early March

Onset: early December
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

early December – early March
86% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +88%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.44).

Unusual years

9

2005
4,340
1.5× the normal annual activity
2007
6,162
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
2008
1,603
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2010
2,669
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
2,867
season ended 4 weeks early
2019
2,968
season ended 3 weeks early
2022
1,478
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2024
2,206
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
1,213
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 17 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson