South West Shewa

Next 7 daysModerate21%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – mid April
Record year: 2025265
Trend: +2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +78%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	67	4
2002	60	2
2003	75	7
2004	46	1
2005	58	5
2006	83	9
2007	74	7
2008	140	34
2009	120	21
2010	55	3
2011	75	9
2012	138	134
2013	34	34
2014	34	34
2015	125	125
2016	48	48
2017	60	60
2018	74	96
2019	51	116
2020	32	68
2021	171	345
2022	68	133
2023	52	97
2024	76	181
2025	265	536
2026	123	439

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.8
Usual (median): 1.5
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.8

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun21°

Mon21°

Tue22°

Wed22°

Thu23°

Fri22°

Sat23°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.8 expected · usual 0.9

Next 3 months

About usual

~15 expected · usual 15

likely 3.5–35 · usual 0.0–25

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – mid April

Onset: early December
Peak: mid March
End: mid April

Critical windows

late January – mid April
71% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +2%/10Raw: +78%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 15.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

6

2009
120
season ended 6 weeks late
2012
138
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
2014
34
season began 13 weeks early
2021
171
2.5× the normal annual activity
peak 4.1× stronger than normal
2022
68
season began 10 weeks late
2025
265
3.9× the normal annual activity
peak 6.7× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson