West Shewa

Next 7 daysVery high76%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – late April
Record year: 20012,241
Trend: −33%/ 10significant · on raw data: +84%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2241	149
2002	1611	137
2003	1815	322
2004	1760	280
2005	1426	243
2006	1307	217
2007	1642	287
2008	2163	400
2009	2210	379
2010	1018	128
2011	1341	216
2012	1281	1214
2013	1212	1212
2014	1045	1045
2015	1622	1622
2016	1170	1170
2017	1276	1276
2018	1213	1839
2019	776	1537
2020	797	1622
2021	1040	2064
2022	820	1574
2023	773	1473
2024	963	1927
2025	895	1768
2026	549	1663

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.1×

Raw data

› 28.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 14
Usual (median): 3.3
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 28.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.1×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~8.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun21°

Mon21°

Tue22°

Wed22°

Thu23°

Fri22°

Sat23°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~8.1 expected · usual 3.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~236 expected · usual 225

likely 73–590 · usual 28–557

Season

Starts ~11 January
Peak ~12 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid January – late April

Onset: mid January
Peak: mid April
End: late April

Critical windows

early February – late April
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −33%/10Raw: +84%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.002): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2002
1,611
season began 6 weeks early
2026
549
only 0.4× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson