Alaba

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – mid February
Record year: 201525
Trend: −19%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +62%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6	2
2002	13	2
2003	14	3
2004	4	1
2005	5	1
2006	6	3
2007	5	0
2008	5	0
2009	5	1
2010	10	3
2011	4	1
2012	14	13
2013	9	9
2014	6	6
2015	25	25
2016	1	1
2017	6	6
2018	7	7
2019	6	8
2020	3	12
2021	3	7
2022	4	6
2023	5	10
2024	1	3
2025	10	19
2026	0	3

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun25°

Mon25°

Tue26°

Wed25°

Thu25°

Fri26°

Sat26°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1.4 expected · usual 3.7

likely 0.0–7.1 · usual 0.0–7.3

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~25 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – early March

Onset: mid November
Peak: late January
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid December – mid February
66% of annual activity
early November – late November
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +62%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.1× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

9

2003
14
2.3× the normal annual activity
2012
14
2.4× the normal annual activity
2013
9
season began 7 weeks early
2015
25
4.2× the normal annual activity
2016
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks early
2020
3
season ended 15 weeks late
2021
3
season ended 13 weeks late
2024
1
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 14 weeks early
2025
10
season began 14 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson