North Western Zone

Next 7 daysHigh50%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – late March
Record year: 20022,264
Trend: −35%/ 10significant · on raw data: +88%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2053	145
2002	2264	255
2003	1542	278
2004	1805	316
2005	1494	258
2006	1289	222
2007	1736	293
2008	1907	308
2009	1009	166
2010	580	72
2011	974	150
2012	1038	988
2013	916	916
2014	738	738
2015	824	824
2016	301	301
2017	949	949
2018	792	1237
2019	738	1584
2020	1155	2191
2021	788	1561
2022	826	1564
2023	1549	3045
2024	1190	2283
2025	826	1657
2026	661	1912

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.8×

Raw data

› 17.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 97
Usual (median): 20
Rank: 4 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 17.9× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.8×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~38.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sun31°

Mon32°

Tue32°

Wed32°

Thu32°

Fri32°

Sat33°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~39 expected · usual 24

Next 3 months

About usual

~626 expected · usual 540

likely 235–962 · usual 119–1,125

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – mid April

Onset: mid November
Peak: early March
End: mid April

Critical windows

mid January – late March
45% of annual activity
mid December – early January
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −35%/10Raw: +88%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2009 (p 0.004): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2002
2,264
2.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late
2004
1,805
season ended 3 weeks late
2008
1,907
peak 2.1× stronger than normal
2013
916
season began 6 weeks late
2014
738
season began 6 weeks late
2015
824
season began 6 weeks late
2016
301
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2017
949
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
826
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson