Argobba Special Woreda

Next 7 daysLow0%

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid May – early July
Record year: 20203
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: 0%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1	0
2002	1	3
2003	1	0
2004	1	1
2005	1	0
2006	1	3
2007	1	0
2008	1	0
2009	1	0
2010	1	0
2011	1	0
2012	0	0
2013	0	0
2014	1	1
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	0	0
2018	1	2
2019	0	1
2020	3	3
2021	1	1
2022	3	3
2023	0	0
2024	0	1
2025	1	2
2026	0	2

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Dry air (38%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun27°

Mon28°

Tue28°

Wed28°

Thu28°

Fri29°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.0 expected · usual 0.0

likely 0.0–0.1 · usual 0.0–0.1

Season

Starts ~18 January
Peak ~21 June

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid January – mid July

Onset: mid January
Peak: late June
End: mid July

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid May – early July
46% of annual activity
late March – late April
22% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: 0%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.18). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

7

2014
1
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
season began 24 weeks late
2015
1
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
season ended 12 weeks early
2018
1
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
season began 26 weeks late
2020
3
4.2× the normal annual activity
peak 19× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late
season ended 7 weeks early
2021
1
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2022
3
4.2× the normal annual activity
peak 28× stronger than normal
season began 22 weeks late
2025
1
peak 9.4× stronger than normal
season ended 25 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson