West Wellega

Next 7 daysModerate37%

Fire season starts in about 8 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid January – early April
Record year: 20065,357
Trend: −41%/ 10significant · on raw data: +76%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5304	391
2002	4734	388
2003	4976	892
2004	4676	873
2005	5196	958
2006	5357	985
2007	4693	926
2008	4311	813
2009	3919	767
2010	3643	694
2011	3549	632
2012	3914	3579
2013	3790	3790
2014	2654	2654
2015	3592	3592
2016	3235	3235
2017	2782	2782
2018	3019	3484
2019	2444	4723
2020	2582	5092
2021	2221	4321
2022	1888	3779
2023	2320	4460
2024	2189	4239
2025	1769	3518
2026	1277	3837

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

3.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 9.6
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~12.5

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun26°

Mon26°

Tue28°

Wed26°

Thu27°

Fri28°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~12 expected · usual 8.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~925 expected · usual 848

likely 338–1,447 · usual 204–1,447

Season

Starts ~4 January
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early January – early April

Onset: early January
Peak: early February
End: early April

Critical windows

mid January – early April
81% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −41%/10Raw: +76%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

3

2008
4,311
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
2,320
season began 3 weeks late
2026
1,277
only 0.4× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson