Awi Agew

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – early February
Record year: 20036,958
Trend: −54%/ 10significant · on raw data: +61%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5717	573
2002	6429	1023
2003	6958	1458
2004	6749	1428
2005	6647	1430
2006	6197	1326
2007	6621	1419
2008	5527	1167
2009	4964	1061
2010	4313	926
2011	5333	1140
2012	4326	4050
2013	4538	4538
2014	3839	3839
2015	3751	3751
2016	4157	4157
2017	2762	2762
2018	3515	5312
2019	1700	3499
2020	2458	4821
2021	1810	3575
2022	1521	3015
2023	1763	3573
2024	2929	5719
2025	2750	5427
2026	1279	3787

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.74×

Raw data

2.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 22
Usual (median): 29
Rank: 15 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.2× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.74×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~51.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun20°

Mon19°

Tue20°

Wed19°

Thu20°

Fri20°

Sat20°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~52 expected · usual 162

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~2,382 expected · usual 3,034

likely 1,088–2,934 · usual 756–6,143

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid April

Onset: late November
Peak: late December
End: mid April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late November – early February
48% of annual activity
early March – mid March
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −54%/10Raw: +61%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

3

2004
6,749
season ended 3 weeks early
2008
5,527
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
1,279
only 0.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson