Shabelle

Next 7 daysLow12%

Fire season: about 20 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – late March
Record year: 2025321
Trend: 0%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +98%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	194	13
2002	128	2
2003	178	16
2004	142	9
2005	171	15
2006	143	11
2007	181	26
2008	166	23
2009	140	8
2010	168	18
2011	131	6
2012	121	111
2013	162	162
2014	160	160
2015	191	191
2016	131	131
2017	33	33
2018	89	149
2019	71	131
2020	180	383
2021	232	473
2022	169	292
2023	114	231
2024	262	543
2025	321	646
2026	127	427

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 2.5
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.8

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (35%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

Sat36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.8 expected · usual 1.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~40 expected · usual 53

likely 12–79 · usual 3.2–107

Season

Ends ~29 March
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – late March

Onset: late July
Peak: early March
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late December – late March
47% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: 0%/10Raw: +98%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 19.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

11

2005
171
season began 10 weeks early
2010
168
season ended 4 weeks late
2013
162
season ended 4 weeks early
2015
191
season ended 3 weeks early
2016
131
season began 6 weeks late
2017
33
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks early
2018
89
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2019
71
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2021
232
season began 8 weeks late
2023
114
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
321
2.0× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson