Kelem Wellega

Next 7 daysHigh56%

Fire season starts in about 5 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 20029,258
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +78%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8076	837
2002	9257	1491
2003	7677	1948
2004	7573	1932
2005	9060	2274
2006	7719	1848
2007	9108	2361
2008	6877	1727
2009	7911	2045
2010	5803	1405
2011	7577	1861
2012	7073	5868
2013	6992	6992
2014	6335	6335
2015	6614	6614
2016	7927	7927
2017	5381	5381
2018	6127	7808
2019	4338	8798
2020	5576	10879
2021	5300	10609
2022	3833	7610
2023	4896	9542
2024	5202	10085
2025	4778	9757
2026	3253	9921

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.2×

Raw data

› 30.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 36
Usual (median): 8.6
Rank: 3 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 30.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.2×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~65.0

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun26°

Mon26°

Tue28°

Wed26°

Thu27°

Fri28°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~65 expected · usual 40

Next 3 months

About usual

~4,518 expected · usual 4,801

likely 2,441–5,724 · usual 1,614–7,725

Season

Starts ~14 December
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid December – early March

Onset: mid December
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +78%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2009
7,911
season began 3 weeks early
2014
6,335
season ended 2 weeks early
2020
5,576
season ended 2 weeks late
2022
3,833
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 2 weeks late
2026
3,253
only 0.5× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson