Illubabor

Next 7 daysLow11%

Fire season starts in about 7 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late December – late March
Record year: 20018,986
Trend: −40%/ 10significant · on raw data: +75%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	8986	605
2002	7451	726
2003	7469	1552
2004	5369	1093
2005	6946	1434
2006	6212	1252
2007	6653	1389
2008	6118	1293
2009	5188	1068
2010	5194	1043
2011	5547	1093
2012	5117	4775
2013	5183	5183
2014	3526	3526
2015	5671	5671
2016	4488	4488
2017	4444	4444
2018	4376	4882
2019	3143	6284
2020	3687	7236
2021	3272	6560
2022	2795	5499
2023	3278	6525
2024	2954	5789
2025	3255	6478
2026	2185	6541

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.51×

Raw data

› 6.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.6
Usual (median): 5.0
Rank: 18 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 6.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.51×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~13.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (13 mm)↓

Sun22°

Mon23°

Tue23°

Wed23°

Thu23°

Fri22°

Sat23°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~13 expected · usual 20

Next 3 months

About usual

~1,605 expected · usual 1,842

likely 746–2,797 · usual 392–3,677

Season

Starts ~28 December
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late December – late March

Onset: late December
Peak: late February
End: late March

Critical windows

late December – late March
84% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −40%/10Raw: +75%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2024
2,954
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
2,185
only 0.4× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson