Data through 14 November 2026 · made 15 November 2026
Fire report
Illubabor
EthiopiaFire season starts in about 7 weeks
November vs a usual year
Below normal
Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001
ODLAR
0.51×
Raw data
› 6.0×
usual = 1×
- This month
- 2.6
- Usual (median)
- 5.0
- Rank
- 18 of 26
Raw satellite data would say 6.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.51×.
Key numbers
- Annual mean
- 5,053
- Peak period
- late December – late March
- Record year
- 2001
- 8,986
- Trend
- −40% / 10
- on raw data: +75%
Burning calendar, week by week (harmonized detections)
Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage
25-year history
The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.
Harmonized: −40%/10Raw: +75%/10
HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty
Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.
What's ahead
From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.
Next 7 days
Low~13 expected · usual 20
Next 3 months
About usual
~1,605 expected · usual 1,842
likely 746–2,797 · usual 392–3,677
Season
- Starts ~28 December
- Peak ~22 February
ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week
How sure is this?
- Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
- Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
- Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
- Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.
About this report
Counts are NASA FIRMS active-fire detections (MODIS since 2000, VIIRS since 2012) put on one scale (harmonized), so years before and after 2012 can be compared.
A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires. Clouds and smoke hide some fires; hatched weeks had no satellite observation.
Weather: Open-Meteo forecast and NASA POWER history. Forecast reliability is from tests on past years the models never saw.
Source: ODLAR, https://odlar.app/region/et-illubabor