North Gondar

Next 7 daysModerate25%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late December
Record year: 200330,269
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	25944	2192
2002	28543	4118
2003	30269	6814
2004	25391	5558
2005	26157	5849
2006	22713	5103
2007	27447	6256
2008	22263	5053
2009	22253	4789
2010	16310	3408
2011	19856	4325
2012	22284	21418
2013	23123	23123
2014	16331	16331
2015	16729	16729
2016	17642	17642
2017	16837	16837
2018	18959	31637
2019	18848	37315
2020	21012	41249
2021	14671	28619
2022	12876	25457
2023	17748	34288
2024	18868	36930
2025	13281	26635
2026	7704	21668

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.0×

Raw data

› 5.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1,204
Usual (median): 607
Rank: 8 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 5.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.0×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~1,262.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (31%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun33°

Mon34°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu36°

Fri35°

Sat35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~1,262 expected · usual 1,082

Next 3 months

About usual

~9,547 expected · usual 11,596

likely 2,563–12,397 · usual 5,985–19,216

Season

Ends ~26 April
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – late April

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: late April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early November – late December
37% of annual activity
late March – late April
20% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p 0.002): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2008
22,263
season ended 4 weeks early
2024
18,868
season began 4 weeks late
2025
13,281
season began 3 weeks late
2026
7,704
only 0.4× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson