Central Tigray

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season starts in about 7 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late March – late May
Record year: 200460
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	25	1
2002	11	0
2003	44	5
2004	60	7
2005	10	0
2006	10	0
2007	26	2
2008	19	1
2009	33	3
2010	17	1
2011	10	0
2012	7	6
2013	14	14
2014	11	11
2015	14	14
2016	7	7
2017	9	9
2018	4	10
2019	11	13
2020	24	40
2021	24	43
2022	10	22
2023	22	44
2024	56	89
2025	6	12
2026	11	28

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Dry air (45%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun26°

Mon26°

Tue26°

Wed26°

Thu26°

Fri27°

Sat27°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.2 expected · usual 3.0

likely 0.0–7.1 · usual 0.0–6.3

Season

Starts ~28 December
Peak ~10 May

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late December – mid May

Onset: late December
Peak: early May
End: mid May

Critical windows

late March – late May
62% of annual activity
mid January – late January
8% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 11.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.17).

Unusual years

12

2002
11
season ended 3 weeks late
2003
44
peak 5.6× stronger than normal
season began 9 weeks late
2004
60
4.3× the normal annual activity
peak 8.1× stronger than normal
season began 13 weeks late
2011
10
season ended 3 weeks late
2012
7
season ended 9 weeks late
2013
14
season began 9 weeks late
2016
7
season began 10 weeks early
2017
9
season ended 5 weeks late
2022
10
season began 13 weeks late
2024
56
4.0× the normal annual activity
peak 5.8× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
6
season ended 4 weeks late
2026
11
season ended 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson