Kafa

Next 7 daysLow11%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 20075,984
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3972	254
2002	3594	366
2003	3552	799
2004	3570	777
2005	5584	1288
2006	2905	616
2007	5984	1336
2008	3405	766
2009	2659	579
2010	3940	897
2011	3398	761
2012	4620	4108
2013	4179	4179
2014	4026	4026
2015	4961	4961
2016	5017	5017
2017	4028	4028
2018	3952	4504
2019	3872	7913
2020	3088	6029
2021	5146	10236
2022	2345	4791
2023	3526	6947
2024	3031	6128
2025	4318	8679
2026	2280	6658

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.4×

Raw data

› 4.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 35
Usual (median): 25
Rank: 10 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 4.5× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.4×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~29.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (69%)↓

Sun30°

Mon31°

Tue31°

Wed31°

Thu31°

Fri31°

Sat32°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~30 expected · usual 41

Next 3 months

About usual

~2,296 expected · usual 2,296

likely 501–3,817 · usual 121–6,175

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – early March

Onset: early December
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
84% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

4

2007
5,984
season ended 3 weeks late
2022
2,345
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2024
3,031
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
2,280
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 18 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson