Afder

Next 7 daysLow11%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early January – late March
Record year: 2007491
Trend: −6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +105%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	304	16
2002	225	10
2003	248	31
2004	259	37
2005	280	39
2006	225	28
2007	491	101
2008	362	69
2009	241	31
2010	175	14
2011	327	56
2012	277	267
2013	307	307
2014	305	305
2015	328	328
2016	312	312
2017	102	102
2018	120	187
2019	207	409
2020	218	501
2021	248	485
2022	186	349
2023	113	220
2024	345	706
2025	421	840
2026	207	564

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (39%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun33°

Mon34°

Tue34°

Wed34°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Sat35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 0.9

Next 3 months

About usual

~54 expected · usual 45

likely 1.0–111 · usual 14–78

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~15 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – late March

Onset: early August
Peak: mid February
End: late March

Critical windows

early January – late March
62% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −6%/10Raw: +105%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

8

2007
491
1.9× the normal annual activity
2011
327
season began 7 weeks late
2017
102
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2018
120
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks early
2019
207
season began 18 weeks late
2021
248
season began 7 weeks late
2023
113
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2026
207
season ended 5 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson