Pawe Special

Next 7 daysLow11%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid January

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late January – mid April
Record year: 2003565
Trend: −46%/ 10significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	432	35
2002	397	41
2003	565	142
2004	431	120
2005	474	125
2006	389	93
2007	353	85
2008	273	62
2009	245	52
2010	315	81
2011	256	58
2012	299	284
2013	217	217
2014	130	130
2015	238	238
2016	248	248
2017	189	189
2018	178	226
2019	190	365
2020	222	410
2021	127	258
2022	152	328
2023	120	254
2024	348	615
2025	341	657
2026	200	573

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (28%)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sun34°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu37°

Fri37°

Sat36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~30 expected · usual 48

likely 1.0–56 · usual 0.0–162

Season

Starts ~11 January
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid January – mid April

Onset: mid January
Peak: early March
End: mid April

Critical windows

late January – mid April
79% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −46%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p 0.003): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2001
433
season began 5 weeks early
2002
397
season began 6 weeks early
2003
565
season began 6 weeks early
2004
431
season began 4 weeks early
2005
474
season began 4 weeks early
2006
389
season began 5 weeks early
2007
353
season began 5 weeks early
2014
130
season ended 3 weeks early
2017
189
season ended 4 weeks early
2019
190
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson