Borena

Next 7 daysHigh47%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – mid March
Record year: 20252,119
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1122	40
2002	1639	109
2003	1257	195
2004	1465	201
2005	1442	191
2006	846	109
2007	1168	141
2008	1932	308
2009	724	83
2010	789	94
2011	1443	185
2012	1368	1231
2013	1199	1199
2014	998	998
2015	1180	1180
2016	794	794
2017	659	659
2018	664	865
2019	1186	2249
2020	585	1078
2021	1740	3269
2022	724	1429
2023	593	1208
2024	2026	4001
2025	2119	4349
2026	831	2487

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 7.1×

Raw data

› 81.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 32
Usual (median): 4.6
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 81.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 7.1×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~15.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun24°

Mon24°

Tue25°

Wed25°

Thu26°

Fri27°

Sat28°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~15 expected · usual 7.7

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~404 expected · usual 331

likely 60–1,351 · usual 23–849

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~15 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late September – early March

Onset: late September
Peak: mid February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – mid March
78% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.74).

Unusual years

1

2011
1,444
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson