Konso Zone

Next 7 daysModerate27%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – mid March
Record year: 2008143
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +78%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	68	2
2002	67	4
2003	72	5
2004	61	3
2005	47	2
2006	51	2
2007	103	11
2008	143	19
2009	61	4
2010	54	2
2011	62	4
2012	29	25
2013	65	65
2014	37	37
2015	50	50
2016	78	78
2017	43	43
2018	71	124
2019	105	215
2020	83	165
2021	120	236
2022	33	71
2023	19	34
2024	27	53
2025	62	145
2026	77	199

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~0.8

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is drying out↑

Sun31°

Mon31°

Tue33°

Wed34°

Thu34°

Fri34°

Sat35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~0.8 expected · usual 1.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~28 expected · usual 34

likely 5.9–81 · usual 0.0–81

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~8 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late August – early March

Onset: late August
Peak: early February
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – mid March
70% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +78%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 14.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

14

2004
61
season ended 3 weeks late
2007
103
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2008
143
2.3× the normal annual activity
peak 2.7× stronger than normal
season began 13 weeks late
2009
61
season began 12 weeks early
2011
62
season began 14 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks late
2012
29
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
43
season began 17 weeks late
2018
71
season ended 3 weeks early
2019
105
peak 2.7× stronger than normal
season began 18 weeks late
2021
120
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
season began 14 weeks late
2022
33
season began 12 weeks early
2023
19
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2024
27
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2026
77
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson