East Gurage

Next 7 daysLow8%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early January – late March
Record year: 2021106
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +90%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	34	0
2002	31	0
2003	37	2
2004	31	1
2005	24	0
2006	23	0
2007	40	2
2008	85	9
2009	62	6
2010	23	0
2011	47	3
2012	48	44
2013	22	22
2014	15	15
2015	57	57
2016	5	5
2017	13	13
2018	20	27
2019	41	97
2020	11	25
2021	106	211
2022	22	56
2023	38	77
2024	52	99
2025	91	162
2026	30	109

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 16 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Strong wind (2.1 m/s)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sun18°

Mon18°

Tue19°

Wed20°

Thu20°

Fri20°

Sat20°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.6

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~5.9 expected · usual 13

likely 1.0–28 · usual 0.0–23

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~22 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – mid April

Onset: early December
Peak: late February
End: mid April

Critical windows

early January – late March
68% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +90%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 31.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.77).

Unusual years

1

2018
20
season ended 9 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson