Tembaro Special Woreda

Next 7 daysHigh52%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – mid February
Record year: 2005175
Trend: −11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +112%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	118	8
2002	108	10
2003	60	3
2004	88	8
2005	175	32
2006	73	6
2007	107	14
2008	115	15
2009	112	15
2010	116	16
2011	83	8
2012	69	48
2013	57	57
2014	81	81
2015	31	31
2016	74	74
2017	47	47
2018	57	93
2019	57	119
2020	73	146
2021	62	113
2022	91	149
2023	100	183
2024	91	172
2025	114	232
2026	59	174

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 9.7
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~6.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun25°

Mon25°

Tue26°

Wed25°

Thu25°

Fri26°

Sat26°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~6.0 expected · usual 2.1

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~119 expected · usual 91

likely 53–191 · usual 24–197

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid February

Onset: late November
Peak: late December
End: mid February

Critical windows

late November – mid February
83% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −11%/10Raw: +112%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 9.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2011 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2003
60
season began 3 weeks early
2006
73
season ended 3 weeks late
2015
31
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
2017
47
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2020
73
season began 3 weeks early
2021
62
season ended 5 weeks late
2023
100
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
91
season ended 3 weeks early
2025
114
season began 3 weeks early
2026
59
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson